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Short update on the short-and medium-term weather conditions ...

Good morning,

only from the fact that in the Alps did not happen (the weather) we conclude rarely a dull moment in other regions:

A weak low-honored just the Norwegians do not worry, tomorrow you get from an ordinary, it develops just above the Central Atlantic .. a toxic cyclones twists in via Italy, are embedded partly strong, convective rain prevailed. Since the low-withdrawing to the south, the wind shifts on the Adriatic Sea to the east to northeast increasingly until tomorrow reaches the Bora therefore on the Croatian Adriatic coast hurricane strength again:

.. only Austria remains an island of the blessed and is boring. During the day, the values are at least more pleasant:

DAS, ladies and gentlemen, will not change until the weekend, by the Downstream Development caught in our direction sent North Atlantic trough us in the course of Saturday from the North West ... Gfs in more than a harmless shock, in the new ECMWF but a direct hit, which would manifest themselves to freezing in the new week into it. It would be wise to accept from me that a few times will go back and forth (damper vs. Full Impact)

Trogvorstösse or no one noticed the most in the northern hemisphere maps. The green and blue tones in geopotential of the 500 he will face in the representation of wetterzentrale.de rare, the more yellow, and orange tones of intense ... which can generally conclude that day-long cold spells, even if the Kaltluftvorstösse are so massive (minus 15 in 850 hPa is still ..), they are increasingly less sustainable.

consolation I can do in 3 weeks when I come back to Austria, for the Summer here in Melbourne is a flop. Currently, the temperature in 850 was only slightly above 0 degrees, so it is in Munich (in height) is currently just warm ...

Lg

Manfred

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Downstream Development and March "winter"?

Hello,

unspectacular and usual boggy in the winter passed today from the calendar meteorologists:

A large low pressure system over the central and western Mediterranean touches the West and Southwest at the periphery, the Atlantic holds back posh. The central depth west of Iceland controls with its core to the north, the warm advection on its front side is built on a strong high pressure wedge, which is mid-week from the Middle Atlantic to north-eastern Europe will cover:

looks at first glance from boring .. and it is. but maybe not so boring for the Synoptics ... use this situation can very well explain the so-called downstream Development conceptually, when the right constellation, this is a similar, can cause massive outbreaks Trough to central Europe.

let me analyze. Interestingly, the frontal zone from the east coast of Canada to Iceland right down to Norway and Sweden. It is East-West and has directed several short waves (troughs and wedges) to.

The first trough (which is in the picture above from Scandinavia fizzles, to Thursday in the Russian cold air sump:

... the frontal zone is on Thursday straight from Labrador through to Scandinavia In Canada. at the very left edge again good conditions result for cyclogenesis, recognizable by a flat surface low in the strong frontal zone ..)

24 hours later it had already well developed, transported to its Front hot air direction Iceland and bulges in the upper air flow to a powerful wedge. At the wedge front side, the flow turns through the bulge of west to northwest and ensures that the cold air is moving forward of the trough over Scandinavia to the south ... penetrate

and finally to Central (and Eastern Europe) would.

course, to JRC, it remains a grazing shot, the trough advance, caused by downstream development model caught in the Alps only in passing. Do the development of Equip 500 km further west, be We caught full. Has not yet been really close .. are but a few days time till then.

It is probably at a potential, but the configuration contains the mid-week, the risk / reward such polar cold air outbreaks in Central Europe to promote rather than hinder, expressed diplomatically.

And what is to be mentioned, this thing with the northern frontal zone over the Atlantic has a certain inclination conservation. Even if the first attack * * the weekend goes wrong, there is a not neglegierende probability that a few days, the next trough in a similar configuration on the North Atlantic more success.

Let's gaze ... looks more dynamic than the total of what we have seen over the last few weeks in the previous section.

Lg

Manfred

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What remains of the winter 2010/2011 in Austria?

Hello and good morning to the last Sunday of the meteorological winter 2010/2011.

stuff to climate budgets and looking back on the drawing to the end of winter, one might easily have been the last few days from the media. I may refer you to this point as to our * own * Looking back to read, among other things in the PRESS.

I want to look back on the blog make it a bit different and more large-scale characteristics of the light that led to that have what we have experienced the weather in the past 3 months, and, above all in the last 8 weeks experienced.

remember we all vividly that winter, when winter really mean by wintry weather, almost all his powder has already missed the first 3 weeks of December. This resulted in two weather conditions with high temporal stability, exemplified by those from 1.12 shown:

deep potential in the south and southwest of the Alps, high in the north led to recurrent sliding of hot-rolled - to cold air, the result was in regular amounts of snow, in particular in the southeast and east.

In the second third of December then another snowy variation ...

The deep potential had since shifted more to the east, high in the West. Snowfalls along the northern Alps and the east were the result, the snow cover reaches the plains with some more than 40cm its maximum ..

... in the last third of it went with the winter but essentially over:

The deep potential now lies in the west, from south eroded the mild air, the snow cover in large parts across the country within 24 hours. The following trough passage generous with snow falls, so the year but then again cold, but otherwise not particularly winter fades.

A bad omen for the constellations in the 4.5 weeks of January that followed .. the pressure over the Mediterranean rose sharply, and fell just as much of Scandinavia ... the West-heavy phase of the winter began ... example the situation at 1.6

.. interrupted only by the most exciting for me the weather of the winter on 13 or 14.1 ...

.... where a marked warm front fell from the northwest to the central parts of the northern Alps partly more than 100 inches of rain and have led to a part of the authorities played down the flood situation along the Danube and its northern tributaries .....

.... We stayed in the rest of January, mostly on the anticyclonic side of the frontal zone without much weather activity. This west facing position without the otherwise typical West storms is another, less glorious particularity.

Only once could we then speak later in the month of February, local West tower, as in the Vienna final amount of flow, the ideal wind direction and Föhneffekte worked together so that gusts were reached to 112 km / h, on hills in the area to 124 km / h ....

As a result, the temperature difference between Southwest and Northeast generally larger again and on the surface separated a front the country into a mild west and southwest and a cold north and east, a pattern that after a short interruption in the last months decade again stopped ...

What weather conditions that we are one of a typical winter flow, we thought it's how often?

Mediterranean cyclones: overrepresented in December, missing in January, raking profits in February.

West locations: Dry modification in January and early February dominant, storms missing almost.


storage locations in the northern Alps: With one exception in December and at the 1.14 missing.


anticyclones: overrepresented in January and early February.


is the picture of a winter, from which one can not make a simple picture, there is no common thread running through. Rather, one has to a marked break in the NH-Zirk. beginning of January and try to face the two unequal parts, the December on the one side, January and February on the other side, of a recent break in late February.

What does the March?

I have the feeling that the March winter is coming .... maybe more tomorrow;)

Lg

Manfred

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height of the cold survived in the East?

Hello,

before I dedicate myself to the topic indicated in the title, a brief look at the current situation. The truth about the snowfall in Western Austria is ultimately, it shows the observations in the middle between. It kummt almost nothing and it's snowing up in Most quarters have this end the models yesterday during the day on a reliable option agreed, namely, that ranges in Vorarlberg but for much more than a few inches and the east but to fall in the Innsbruck area flakes.


The rainfall of the last 12 hours:

example, are composed come in Bludenz already 13 L / m², as bazerter snow at values slightly above 0, Fire 9, there as a powdery snow. Thus, the model prediction fits reasonably from yesterday ...

being modeled in the model of the valleys effect too much.

On the image, one must look to the front quite well:

.. involved almost exclusively as low and middle clouds are a few.

cold ... last night was in the east even a few degrees milder than the one before ..

.. and the trend continues over the coming days, since moved to the core of the cold air mass in the east of us. And can have the effect of the solar radiation at this time on the ground-level air masses, when more cold advection is missing, the should not be underestimated, because after all, come at lunch time, sort out the sun gets through quite a few 100 W / m more than in December :

.. and at least until the beginning of the week there is no significant cold advection, but again to no hot air, so the next one will remain but often chilly during the day but in the deeper regions already a big + in front of the number is, for example, on Sunday:

minimum:

Maximum:

Whether it stays that way, the question many, even as I Frühlingsliebahber. It features in most models, no trend to shift to a south-or west-weather, on the contrary, the JRC could just get us to the middle of the week again Russian cold breath. The JRC maintains a tendency for the formation of cold air drops in the northeast and east of Austria, which migrate to retrograde under a high Scandinavia West. Not a particularly edifying weather in early March ...

na we shall see ... a temporary warming, even if it does not fail should drastically lower your energy costs as temporary.

Lg

Manfred

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familiar model, forecast spanking

Hello,

short and sweet. Perhaps it is now and good that one, though motivated by experience and logic, prognosis completely messed ...

be ... um, ultimately, to remember that as a meteorologist at the present time, as well as the work may be, with respect to the confidence in the prediction of the confidence bound in our models, and ultimately it is this trust and falls

long introduction short:. on with the substantial snowfall of Thursday to Friday in the West, there is nothing. For our colleagues in eastern Switzerland, it looks * better *, on the Austrian side, we will get off with a few cm in Vorarlberg and the woas.

Although the corresponding front looks very impressive from now ..

.. but is now quite fixed, that the stagnation process in progress in accordance East will take place for over Switzerland, and Austria do not have, and moreover, under accelerated exponentially Selbstentleibung so Zerbröselung the front.

This corresponds to put the trust in the right model for the current weather situation of a long-term bond, in which there is in a partnership highlights and black days. This, without being too pathetic to be, is such a black, and is punishable by offended skepticism over weeks.

What remains is the ground-level cold, and especially in the East Kahlfrostigkeit ...

their sadness is reflected even in the name. At least in northern and north-easterly flow, the chance to maintain sun ... and a mild bissl will make it to the weekend .. in general. That the weekend with a trough advance from the Atlantic to the Mediterranean, with simultaneous preservation of the cold air mass north of Austria could perhaps bring weider snow, I say today, very quietly.

gruesome even than with us you get to in the near-neighbors in the Southeast. The Bora is again to .... and achieved in the coming hours once a barren peak ... simulate

up to 55 knots, so about 100 km / h with wind ... at the same time Temperatures below 0 degrees, even on the coast ..

there along the coast of Primorye, Senj Dalmatia and then typical lines, where the Bora rages worse and those where it is a bit tamer. For example, the city of Zadar is often spared the grosser gusts, while a few miles further north in the area of Maslenica bridge gusts around 150 km / h are attained, they also currently the case.

This is no accident, but has just system. Zadar is in front on a flat peninsula, the mountains (Velebit, up to 1600m) by about 20 km, Maslenica is more or less directly on the slope. It is often such that the Bora, when she finally meets the sea suddenly lifted off the ground and further from the mountains blow away some 100m above the ground, while on the ground only a little wind, and that coming from the opposite direction, blowing. It caused rolling.

even more dangerous for sailors, since these rollers can be lowered legally and let the unpredictable gusts of 10 to 120 km / h, interrupted by a change of direction by 180 °. That depends on boats not so good ...

fulfilled the mission of the day, something interesting was found;)

Lg

Manfred

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Quick Update snowfall Thursday / Friday

Hello,

unfortunately only briefly and without a card (because I am a bit stressed out ..) a new assessment of the air mass limit on Austria. It could, and so it is worth at least this small update before are parts of our valued Alpine republic a rather wintry interlude. It's already cold, especially in the east, but the snow is lacking, thus far ... to the east gets in the foreseeable future from not different in the case but in Northern Tyrol, Salzburg and Upper Austria, partly in Vorarlberg!

It should here namely the stationary front that no further progress is to the east, especially in the border triangle Salzburg / Tirol / Bavaria, but come down a good amount.

Several criteria for vigorous and constant output Snow should be met locally:

frontal zone
Warmluftransport in height at ground level
Kaltluftadvaketion
At the height of the mountain ridges north-west flow, so storage effects at ground level easterly current.

A 30 + Friday evening there might already be in it .... More critical the situation in Vorarlberg, here the mild air is already quite close, so Baatz is in the air ... east of Linz scents after a short-18Z GFS confusion of arriving but nothing more, provides the front does not continue to the east, before being pushed back on Friday after Weschten.

It could be that the snowfall for a Northwest Höhenanströmung also considerably far lunged over the main ridge to the south, so Carinthia, East Tyrol and the upper Mur valley, because of ground-level Ostströmung and very stable conditions ... But this is still a shaky bissl, we see tomorrow.

This in a nutshell ...

lg

Manfred

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Schneehauberl in the west and mid-week

Hello,

the day before yesterday mentioned snow event in the West has now entered. Although no specific dramas are played out for a few cm of fresh snow but it has served in places but that just this February 2010 is not at all self-evident. At first I would particularly like to legitimate objections of my colleague Felix (see comment section of the last posts ..) enter into, whether it would really go anywhere because of snow. I had the perspective in the comments on the Kommenar for the Rhine Valley .... we gaze at what really happened.

has in Bregenz, it really started to rain and there remains some time to rain, until the precipitate in snowfall was: was

In Innsbruck, however, not much time for the drops, but after a considerable cooled daily maximum of more than 6 degrees it before the arrival of the precipitate rapidly, so soon on the evening the flakes rippled, only batzert, then dry and powdery:

You can see the (precipitation) cooling in the comparison of the radiosonde upgrade between Sunday morning and Monday morning quite well:

the east of all this was nothing to remember, with the wind speed increases from north to northeast leaked a dry, continental cold air that caused the values to fall far to minus 9 degrees:

far, so good. The light to moderate snow will continue for a Zeiterl in the West, giving the impression of the season will meet again at last for a long time. Before I get into that, that in the West even more flakes could be together, we go to the southeast to the unpleasant side of a continental cold air quality Cassis de Dijon proposal ... to Croatia. There is a classic Bora situation on the coast of Primorye and northern Dalmatia has set.

this meet two things: first, a sucking surface low over Sicily, the other reaches out around the cold air from Austria Hungary and now also the hinterland of the coastal mountains, fills the tank to gradually, until the cold air until the nicks and cuts, then spills all over the ridge and is accelerated katabatic. Gusts exceeding 100 km / h at unpleasant temperatures are not as inevitable. in any case, this land at Bora in the winter nothing of the Mediterranean and lovely atmosphere in the spring and summer months.


And last but not least mid week. Yes, the Atlantic Warm air comes to Thursday .. However, exactly as planned ...

an active Atlantic warm front, wedge embedded in a front-side flow reaches North Western Austria. This situation creates classically heavy snowfalls in the northern Alps .... so in the now-quality simulation:

only has a catch: In the upper air flow you can see a small short-wave trough north of Austria:

ensures Fafu that the front to Friday again retrograde, thus moving away kaltkativ west .. very slowly ...

.. and depositing the case of locally constant output, mostly in the form of snow. Subsequently, the body gives way to cold air in the east very slowly. or in the area of speculation.

Such a development would provide a more sustainable Schneehauberl, such as between Schoppernau and Salzburg. We'll see when the location of the LMG leaves something to them on contact.

Lg

Manfred

Do People Eat Penises

The actual numbers for election in Hamburg

If more than 40 percent do not vote, then this certainly shows clearly what the citizens think of the election. With less than 30 percent of the electorate that a party can win an absolute majority in parliament. SPD and CDU have come together to move less than 50 percent of the electorate, you can choose. This fact is however almost never mentioned. Even the Left does not talk more about it. are well out of fear that one would reckon her that she referred to the voters ended up less than 5 percent.

Hungary has managed the current head of government even with 52 percent of the vote to fill a majority of seats by 75 percent.

Can we still call it democratic?

But this kind of democracy is even greater. In referendums rich 21 percent of the electorate to bring about so-called "democratic" people's decisions.

In truth, a greater proportion of the population away from the election and then is still boldly juggled with percentages, in which the majority of eligible voters is not included.

Correctly, would the parliamentary seats, which account for non-voters (including those invalid votes), remain unfilled. In votes are counted those votes would always "no." Only with this solution would be for the Existensfrage parties and make all parties would seek to bring the voters to the ballot box.

But our chancellor has already publicly questioned the raison d'être of democracy. An echo to it has been possible only read blogs. Just as our Constitution forbids wars of aggression, but Mr. Guttenberg quite blithely rants about the necessity of war to secure the German economy. When former Federal President Köhler, the Greens have rebelled against such statements. Today this is a general silence.

Let's see how long it will take some time before the spark of Tunis spills over and understand the powerless, that they are really powerful!

PS:
Mr. Scholz was seen in 2010 at the meeting of the Bilderbergers. Coincidence? Mrs Merkel had been seen prior to their 2005 election at the meeting. But such facts can be dismissed immediately of course as a conspiracy theory.

Without the resistance of a few Democrats would even here voting on voting machines. And the result of this kind of election could be decided by the Bilderbergers in advance. Thanks to the stupidity of the citizens can be the desired result, failing that, for effective control with the help of the media and non-voters.

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