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Downstream Development and March "winter"?

Hello,

unspectacular and usual boggy in the winter passed today from the calendar meteorologists:

A large low pressure system over the central and western Mediterranean touches the West and Southwest at the periphery, the Atlantic holds back posh. The central depth west of Iceland controls with its core to the north, the warm advection on its front side is built on a strong high pressure wedge, which is mid-week from the Middle Atlantic to north-eastern Europe will cover:

looks at first glance from boring .. and it is. but maybe not so boring for the Synoptics ... use this situation can very well explain the so-called downstream Development conceptually, when the right constellation, this is a similar, can cause massive outbreaks Trough to central Europe.

let me analyze. Interestingly, the frontal zone from the east coast of Canada to Iceland right down to Norway and Sweden. It is East-West and has directed several short waves (troughs and wedges) to.

The first trough (which is in the picture above from Scandinavia fizzles, to Thursday in the Russian cold air sump:

... the frontal zone is on Thursday straight from Labrador through to Scandinavia In Canada. at the very left edge again good conditions result for cyclogenesis, recognizable by a flat surface low in the strong frontal zone ..)

24 hours later it had already well developed, transported to its Front hot air direction Iceland and bulges in the upper air flow to a powerful wedge. At the wedge front side, the flow turns through the bulge of west to northwest and ensures that the cold air is moving forward of the trough over Scandinavia to the south ... penetrate

and finally to Central (and Eastern Europe) would.

course, to JRC, it remains a grazing shot, the trough advance, caused by downstream development model caught in the Alps only in passing. Do the development of Equip 500 km further west, be We caught full. Has not yet been really close .. are but a few days time till then.

It is probably at a potential, but the configuration contains the mid-week, the risk / reward such polar cold air outbreaks in Central Europe to promote rather than hinder, expressed diplomatically.

And what is to be mentioned, this thing with the northern frontal zone over the Atlantic has a certain inclination conservation. Even if the first attack * * the weekend goes wrong, there is a not neglegierende probability that a few days, the next trough in a similar configuration on the North Atlantic more success.

Let's gaze ... looks more dynamic than the total of what we have seen over the last few weeks in the previous section.

Lg

Manfred