Tuesday, February 22, 2011

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familiar model, forecast spanking

Hello,

short and sweet. Perhaps it is now and good that one, though motivated by experience and logic, prognosis completely messed ...

be ... um, ultimately, to remember that as a meteorologist at the present time, as well as the work may be, with respect to the confidence in the prediction of the confidence bound in our models, and ultimately it is this trust and falls

long introduction short:. on with the substantial snowfall of Thursday to Friday in the West, there is nothing. For our colleagues in eastern Switzerland, it looks * better *, on the Austrian side, we will get off with a few cm in Vorarlberg and the woas.

Although the corresponding front looks very impressive from now ..



.. but is now quite fixed, that the stagnation process in progress in accordance East will take place for over Switzerland, and Austria do not have, and moreover, under accelerated exponentially Selbstentleibung so Zerbröselung the front.

This corresponds to put the trust in the right model for the current weather situation of a long-term bond, in which there is in a partnership highlights and black days. This, without being too pathetic to be, is such a black, and is punishable by offended skepticism over weeks.

What remains is the ground-level cold, and especially in the East Kahlfrostigkeit ...




their sadness is reflected even in the name. At least in northern and north-easterly flow, the chance to maintain sun ... and a mild bissl will make it to the weekend .. in general. That the weekend with a trough advance from the Atlantic to the Mediterranean, with simultaneous preservation of the cold air mass north of Austria could perhaps bring weider snow, I say today, very quietly.

gruesome even than with us you get to in the near-neighbors in the Southeast. The Bora is again to .... and achieved in the coming hours once a barren peak ... simulate


up to 55 knots, so about 100 km / h with wind ... at the same time Temperatures below 0 degrees, even on the coast ..


there along the coast of Primorye, Senj Dalmatia and then typical lines, where the Bora rages worse and those where it is a bit tamer. For example, the city of Zadar is often spared the grosser gusts, while a few miles further north in the area of Maslenica bridge gusts around 150 km / h are attained, they also currently the case.

This is no accident, but has just system. Zadar is in front on a flat peninsula, the mountains (Velebit, up to 1600m) by about 20 km, Maslenica is more or less directly on the slope. It is often such that the Bora, when she finally meets the sea suddenly lifted off the ground and further from the mountains blow away some 100m above the ground, while on the ground only a little wind, and that coming from the opposite direction, blowing. It caused rolling.

even more dangerous for sailors, since these rollers can be lowered legally and let the unpredictable gusts of 10 to 120 km / h, interrupted by a change of direction by 180 °. That depends on boats not so good ...

fulfilled the mission of the day, something interesting was found;)

Lg

Manfred

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